Ten years after the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that split the nation and unleashed chaos, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two leading writers from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially contentious and seismic public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our islands remains very unstable."
Released Volume Intends to Provoke Discussion
The duo have examined the governmental, economic and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the issue with a roadshow of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles all parties, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose implications have remained undefined because then you land with an extraordinarily split population where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the those successful don't know quite what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue this point is looming, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity if and when there might be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has obscured the lack of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has gone on in universities but very few elected officials or campaigners want to engage even with the basics. For instance, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the book, none of the commentators endorses unity or the status quo. Both composes two pieces that aim for impartiality in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling economic and societal figures, past examples and constitutional models.
Discussions cover flags and symbols, duties, medical care, retirement funds, public liabilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The goal is to enlighten and encourage conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there is still lacking a dialogue," commented the writer. "Debate indicates an recognition of the concept that there may exist reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they favour unity but oppose increased taxation or adopting a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin must establish what the plan from Irish nationalism is aside from just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride believes a referendum in his generation is likely and that it may take place suddenly. "You could have just a reckless or a ill-advised or a feckless secretary of state who states: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate points, he commented. "One side will win in this matter and somebody will in the end not succeed but each side has has valuable insights to gain from the other's viewpoints."
Request for Broader Debate
Westminster must join the discussion, stated the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish issue."
